MARKET TRENDS & UPDATES

Clear insights into what’s happening in the market – and what it means for you.

The fall market is about to begin – but this year, buyers and sellers are entering September with more than the usual questions.

Labour Day has always felt like the unofficial end of summer.

Vacations wind down. Kids head back to school. Families return to their routines. And in real estate, September often brings renewed activity as buyers and sellers who spent the summer waiting begin making decisions again.

But the fall of 2026 isn't beginning under normal circumstances.

The Bank of Canada has just made its latest interest-rate decision. Canada's trade relationship with the United States has become increasingly uncertain. Negotiations surrounding CUSMA remain unresolved. The ongoing war in Iran has contributed to higher energy costs. Gasoline prices have risen sharply, grocery prices remain elevated, and many households are still feeling pressure from the cost of everyday living.

All of that raises an important question:

What will happen when the traditional fall real estate market meets an unusually uncertain economy?

For Durham Region buyers and sellers, the first few weeks after Labour Day could give us some important clues.

The September 2nd Bank of Canada Decision

On September 2nd, the Bank of Canada held its overnight rate unchanged at 2.25%.

But perhaps more important than the decision itself was what the Bank said about inflation, Canada's economy, the trade dispute with the United States and the risks ahead.

The Bank said Canada's economy is showing signs of recovery, but uncertainty remains high. New U.S. tariffs and Canadian counter-tariffs could put pressure on economic growth and consumer prices, while the continuing conflict in the Middle East and higher energy costs have increased inflation risks.

The decision to leave rates unchanged reflects the difficult balancing act facing the Bank. Higher energy costs and inflation remain concerns, while trade uncertainty and the possibility of weaker economic growth argue against putting additional pressure on households and businesses.

For Durham Region buyers and sellers, the message is that rates may be stable for now, but uncertainty remains. Buyers aren't getting the rate cut some may have been hoping for, while concerns about trade, energy prices and the cost of living could continue to influence buyer confidence as the fall market begins.

Why This Rate Decision Matters to Real Estate

Interest rates are obviously important to anyone buying a home with a mortgage.

But I think there's another factor that sometimes gets overlooked:

Confidence.

For months, some potential buyers have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for something to change.

Lower prices.

Lower mortgage rates.

More economic certainty.

Or simply some indication that we've reached a point where they feel comfortable making a decision.

The September 2nd announcement gives those buyers another piece of information.

Whether it is enough to bring them back into the market remains to be seen.

And that's one reason the weeks immediately following Labour Day could be particularly important.

The Trade War Adds Another Layer of Uncertainty

Interest rates aren't the only thing influencing buyer and seller confidence.

Canada's trade relationship with the United States has become a major economic concern.

Recent negotiations failed to produce an agreement, tariffs and counter-tariffs are affecting Canadian businesses, and the future of the trading relationship remains uncertain.

For Ontario, this is particularly significant because of our manufacturing sector and the importance of the automotive industry.

That hits especially close to home in Durham Region.

Oshawa and the surrounding communities have a long connection to Canada's automotive industry, and developments affecting manufacturing, employment and investment can have a direct or indirect effect on confidence throughout our local economy.

When people become uncertain about their employment or the direction of the economy, major financial decisions can sometimes be postponed.

Buying a home is one of those decisions.

Then There's CUSMA

The uncertainty doesn't end with the immediate tariff dispute.

The future of the Canada–United States–Mexico trade relationship remains another major issue.

For businesses, workers and consumers, uncertainty surrounding North American trade can make planning more difficult.

And housing doesn't exist separately from the rest of the economy.

Employment confidence affects buyer confidence.

Business investment affects employment.

Employment affects people's willingness and ability to purchase homes.

That's why developments in these negotiations could ultimately have implications for the Durham Region housing market, even if the connection isn't immediately obvious.

The Iran War Is Affecting Household Budgets Here at Home

A war taking place thousands of kilometres away may seem disconnected from Durham Region real estate.

Economically, it isn't.

Disruptions to global energy supplies and transportation routes have contributed to significantly higher energy costs.

Canadians are seeing some of those effects every time they fill their vehicles.

Statistics Canada reported that gasoline prices in July were 25.7% higher than a year earlier.

And gas isn't the only household expense putting pressure on budgets.

Food purchased from stores was 3.1% more expensive than a year earlier, marking the 18th consecutive month in which grocery inflation exceeded overall inflation.

Those numbers matter to real estate.

Affordability Is About More Than the Mortgage Payment

When we talk about housing affordability, the conversation tends to focus on two things:

Home prices and mortgage rates.

But families don't live on mortgage payments alone.

They also have to pay for:

• Groceries
• Gasoline
• Utilities
• Insurance
• Property taxes
• Transportation
• Childcare and family expenses
• Home maintenance

When those costs rise, there's less room in the household budget.

That can influence how much buyers are comfortable spending on a home, even if they technically qualify for a larger mortgage.

It can also make existing homeowners more cautious about moving up to a more expensive property.

That's why I think the cost-of-living story is an important part of understanding this fall's housing market.

So What Happens After Labour Day?

This is where things get particularly interesting.

There are forces pulling the Durham Region market in both directions.

Economic uncertainty could keep some buyers on the sidelines.

But uncertainty can affect sellers too.

Homeowners who don't need to move may decide to wait rather than list their homes.

That creates an interesting question:

Which returns first after Labour Day – buyers or listings?

If buyers return in greater numbers but the supply of homes remains relatively limited, competition could increase for attractive, well-priced properties.

If sellers return in greater numbers while buyers remain cautious, buyers could continue to have considerable choice and negotiating power.

And if both buyers and sellers return at roughly the same pace, we could see relatively balanced conditions continue.

The first few weeks of September should start giving us the answer.

What Buyers Should Be Watching

If you're considering buying this fall, don't focus exclusively on headlines about the overall market.

Watch what is happening in the areas and price ranges you're actually considering.

Pay particular attention to:

New listings – Is your selection increasing or decreasing?

Days on market – Are desirable homes beginning to sell faster?

Price reductions – Are sellers still adjusting their expectations?

Sale-to-list prices – How much negotiating room are buyers actually getting?

Conditions – Are buyers successfully including financing, inspection or other protections in their offers?

Those indicators can tell you much more about your negotiating position than a headline about the average GTA home price.

What Sellers Should Be Watching

For homeowners thinking about selling this fall, September could provide an important window.

But don't assume that simply listing during the traditional fall market guarantees strong buyer interest.

Today's buyers are paying attention.

They're comparing properties.

They're watching asking prices.

And they're noticing which homes sit on the market.

That makes proper pricing, presentation and marketing particularly important.

The question isn't simply:

"Is this a good market?"

A much better question is:

"What's happening with homes like mine, in my neighbourhood, at my price point?"

Remember – Durham Region Isn't One Market

This is something I emphasize frequently.

Durham Region isn't one housing market.

Conditions can differ substantially between:

Pickering
Ajax
Whitby
Oshawa
Clarington
Uxbridge
Scugog
Brock

And there can be significant differences within those communities depending on neighbourhood, property type and price range.

A detached home in Whitby could be experiencing very different buyer demand than a condo apartment in Pickering, a bungalow in Oshawa or a rural property in north Durham.

That's why broad market statistics are useful – but they shouldn't be the only information you use when deciding whether to buy or sell.

Something to Consider This Labour Day

There is a lot of uncertainty right now.

Interest rates.

Tariffs.

Canada–U.S. trade.

CUSMA.

The war in Iran.

Gas prices.

Grocery prices.

The cost of living.

It would be understandable for someone considering a move to look at all of that and think:

"Maybe I should just wait."

For some people, waiting may absolutely be the right decision.

For others, today's uncertainty could create opportunities that become harder to find if confidence returns and more buyers enter the market.

That's why I don't believe the question should simply be:

"Should I buy or sell now?"

It should be:

"Based on my situation, my plans and what's happening in my particular market, does making a move now make sense for me?"

That's a very different question.

And it's the one worth answering.

What I'll Be Watching After Labour Day

Over the next several weeks, I'll be paying particularly close attention to:

• Whether buyer activity increases
• Whether new listings increase
• How quickly well-priced homes sell
• Whether sellers continue reducing prices
• Whether buyers retain negotiating power
• Where mortgage rates go following the Bank of Canada announcement
• How the Canada–U.S. trade dispute develops
• Whether higher energy and living costs continue putting pressure on household budgets

Together, those factors should give us a much clearer picture of what the Durham Region fall market will look like.

Thinking About Buying or Selling This Fall?

If you're considering a move but aren't sure what all of these changes mean for you, the best place to start is with the numbers that actually apply to your situation.

For sellers, that means looking at recent comparable sales, current competition and what buyers are actually paying in your neighbourhood.

For buyers, it means understanding available inventory, recent selling prices and where there may still be opportunities to negotiate.

You can reach me through the Contact page below, or call me directly at 905-683-7800.

Sometimes the smartest decision isn't rushing into the market – or automatically waiting on the sidelines.

It's having the right information before you decide.

 

Thanks For Reading Today’s Blog!

Brian Kondo
Sales Representative / Team Leader
The Brian Kondo Real Estate Team
Re/Max Hallmark First Group Realty Ltd.
905-683-7800 office
905-426-7484 direct
brian@briankondo.com
www.BrianKondo.com
www.BrianKondoTeam.com


If you or anyone you know is considering making a move in the next little while, give me a call or pass on my number ... 905-683-7800 (Office) or 905-426-7484 (Direct).

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